Mid Canterbury farming could be facing massive district-altering land use changes inside the next 20 years.
That’s the call from Mid Canterbury’s Federated Farmers dairy chairman Nick Giera, who said consent renewals for water use and dairy sheds, plus climate change issues, could lead to a significant land use change by the early 2040s.
Giera’s view was backed up by the release of a report from Our Land and Water, which found about 40 per cent of all dairy milking sheds in the Mid Canterbury district were built between 2007 and 2015.
Those 230 sheds would reach the end of their economic life between 2040 and 2048, which would mean nearly half of all dairy sheds in the region were likely to need replacing during that period.
The researchers also found that 78 per cent of all water use consents in the district would expire between 2030 and 2040. But the land area would be even greater because the water consents of all three irrigation companies in the district would also fall due in this period.
“For owner-operators, and family farms making any decision to change, will involve looking at return on investment,’’ Giera said.
“But they’ll also consider their own personal stage of their farming career, succession plans, and asset value considerations of alternative land uses.
“At the moment there are not many land uses (with the required supporting infrastructure) that compete with dairy on a return-on-investment basis, but that may change in the future.’’
Giera thought most farmers would wait until there were reliable trends and patterns of long-term changes to climate before making significant changes to their business.
“Climate data is notoriously inaccurate and models that predict future changes in climate have a long way to go to give farmers any confidence in investing based on future predictions,’’ he said.
“Soil type and localised climate are big drivers of what is possible and that’s where we need data.’’
Ashburton District Council’s chief executive, Hamish Riach, said that by working together, supported by industry and the scientific community, farmers could understand what the climate future would look like.
“If we give farmers research they can take home, and use straight away, rather than high-level theory, then they will minimise risk and utilise the opportunities emerging through a changing climate.”

• By Pat Deavoll